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Super Bowl XLI Preview and Prediction
by: 24 Carat
01-25-2007
With 10 days and counting to Super Bowl XLI, there is still ample time to break down and analyze every angle of this game. But rarely does a Super Bowl go according to what one would envision.
Part of the reason is the grand stage on which it is played. The hype and pressure to perform is enormous. The game itself is an island, the only game being played that day and the finale for the year. There is no next week. Win and you're etched in history�.lose and the bitter taste of defeat stays with you forever. Most won't get a second chance given the parity that exists in the sport today. If you do, consider yourself lucky.
This game is supposed to pair the best team from each conference but rarely is it the two best teams in the NFL. The strength of one conference over the other is cyclical. After years of dominance by the NFC in the 80's to late-90's, the AFC has become the dominant conference beginning with Denver's win in the '98 Super Bowl. Since then, the AFC has held the upper hand. As a consequence, the "real" Super Bowl has become the stronger conference's Championship game. The Super Bowl itself is often times a formality.
What does this all mean as we prepare for the Colts and Bears? Nothing. The balance of power still sits with the AFC. But if we look at the past 5 years of results, the NFC has won once and come within 3 points thrice. Last year, you could make the case (certainly Seahawks fans will) that Seattle could have, should have won that game. So after years of the point spread not being a factor (see Super Bowl History), the games are getting much closer despite the view that the AFC is vastly superior to the NFC.
Breakdown
There are multiple ways to break this game down. The Colts "O" versus the Bears "D" is certainly at the forefront of everyone's mind. And often times, the better "D" wins that contest.
But the real story of this game is going to be turnovers and special teams play. Chicago leads the league in turnovers and points scored off them. They also have the best kick returner in Devin Hester that will be up against a very average Indianapolis coverage team. And anyone watching Bears' P Maynard and K Gould last weekend could see they have one of the best kicking tandems in the game as well.
Another key will be both teams ability to run and stop the run. Both offenses have a good one-two punch with their running backs. Forget the fact that the Colts allowed over 100 yards rushing in every regular season game this year. In the playoffs, they have been tough as nails in shutting down quality backs. How well they can prevent RBs Jones and Benson from having an impact on the game will be vital to their success. The Colts will play close to the line of scrimmage and try to put the game in Grossman's hand. Conversely, the Bears will throw the ball more on first down in order to loosen up the Indy run defense.
It's almost a given that the Bears running defense will be a wall to try and break through. Indy RBs Addai and Rhodes may not be much of a factor in the box score, but the Colts need to keep the Bears honest and run the ball at least 25 times. Manning's game lately has been to be more patient and take the short throws. If you allow the Bears' extremely fast and athletic LBs to drop back into pass coverage without respecting the run, then the Colts could find it tough going despite the fact the Bears secondary is their weak link on defense.
The tale of Rex Grossman's year is well known by this point. He's either hot or cold with almost as many games with a below 40 QB rating as an above 100 QB rating. But in the playoffs, he's been steady and largely mistake-free. That is exactly what the Bears need of him; don't try to win the game by yourself. Just manage the game and do not make bad decisions. And for all the heat Grossman takes, he is very capable of being an accurate and big play QB if he has time to set up and step into his throws.
Breakdown
With the role of underdog, the Bears will be carrying a big chip on their shoulder. They've heard all year how the NFC is inferior to the AFC. They've heard the criticism that they played a weak schedule. They've heard all week about the Colts great offense. Make no mistake, Chicago will come to play and relish the role of being the underdog.
Getting back to the keys of this game; special teams and big plays will decide the outcome. The Colts, with 2 weeks to prepare, should not (must not for their sake) allow Hester to be an impact. Their focus also has to be on protecting the football from the opportunistic Bears defense.
As good as the Bears defense is, it doesn't compare to their '85 team, or even more recently, to Baltimore's 2000 or Tampa's 2002 defenses. Teams can throw all day on Chicago provided they don't become too one dimensional and allow the pass rush to disrupt the QB.
There's been much written about this being a game of big plays and high scores. But the Colts defense and ability to control the ball on offense will keep this game below the number and allow the Colts to cover.
Prediction: Indianapolis 30, Chicago 16
Super Bowl XLI Betting
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