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Game 1 of 162
by: Players Advantage
4-3-2007
With another Major League Baseball Opening Day having come and gone it is absolutely the perfect time to refocus on one of the most important phrases that exists in sports gaming. That phrase uttered so many times but yet somehow not enough is that �sports betting is a marathon�not a sprint�. This is something that goes for all sports, all seasons, year in and year out. However, it is probably more important in baseball than any other sport to always keep this phrase in mind.
Baseball is the only sport where teams play nearly daily for six months straight. As such, baseball needs to be treated with the respect of the strictest money management skills. This is another reason why underdogs can be such a big value in baseball wagering. The plus money returns add up over the long haul and, as an example, losing one unit on a dog is much more palatable than losing one and a half units on a favorite. Losing all the extra juice on a favorite adds up quickly over the long course of a baseball season.
On opening day of the 2007 baseball season we took a shot with a big dog as Tampa Bay was catching about a $1.70 and we also had what we felt was a very solid situation on a game to fly over the total in Kansas City. They both fell short but just as the losing players tell themselves we also remind ourselves and our clients that it�s Game 1 of 162. A lot of hard work and effort goes into putting together a solid write-up on a game that truly points out all the key variables. Below we have included our write-up from our first side play of the 2007 baseball season.
1* (regular play) Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Kazmir) Money Line +170 @ New York Yankees (Pavano) @ 1:05 ET - The casual observer who looks at this match-up will be hard pressed to take the Devil Rays here. One look at the Yankees lineup and the big name stars it possesses is all that the average bettor needs to see before plunking down their hard earned dough on the guys in pinstripes. However, there is so much more to baseball betting than merely looking at names on a sheet of paper. In this particular case today we feel we have a great shot at a big upset win on opening day because of the pitching match-up here. Certainly are edges are not confined to just Kazmir over Pavano but that is a big one to say the least.
The pressure is really on Pavano here. He will be making his first big league start since the summer of 2005. The fact is that he is the starting pitcher for the Yankees on opening day only by default. Injuries to the Yanks starting rotation have left Pavano as "the guy" on opening day in Yankees Stadium. From a pyschological standpoint this is the last situation that Pavano needed. He can say what he wants and he can say he is ready too. But the fact remains that Pavano would have been much better starting off his comeback on the road rather than in front of the tens of thousands of rabid Yankees fans who will boo him the first chance they get since he's been no help to them since coming to New York.
As for Kazmir, this southpaw is easily one of the best lefthanders in the game. Keep in mind that he was hurting some in the second half of last season and that prevented him (along with poor run support) from having much success after the All Star break. However, Kazmir's shoulder injury was nothing serious and he is pitching with complete health now. His overall spring numbers did not impress but here's the key: he got better with each appearance! Kazmir is ready to go and the young hurler also has grown in confidence with each season. He's not intimidated at all by pitching in Yankee Stadium. Kazmir also benefits because of the Yankees lineup being loaded with lefties. Scott has held lefthanded sticks to a .214 average in his career.
The Devil Rays lineup is better than you think. The real weakness looms at the back-end but #8 hitter Elijah Dukes earned the starting center fielder spot with a solid spring! As for the #9 hitter, BJ Upton, he'll combine with Carl Crawford at the top of the lineup to give the Devil Rays back to back speedsters in the lineup that can tear up the basepaths! Yankees catcher Jorge Posada certainly does not strike fear into basestealers and, what may surprise many, is that Posada also still has issues with the way he calls games at times. As for Devil Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, he doesn't have much of a stick but he's in the lineup because he calls a good game and is very solid defensively.
Kazmir has proven capable of pitching deep into games and that minimizes the impact of a subpar bullpen here. One final comment on the Devil Rays lineup that could frustrate Pavano today bears mentioning. Tampa Bay made a conscious effort in spring training to look at more pitchers, force the pitchers to work and to build up big pitch counts. The Devil Rays wanted to insure they have more discipline at the plate this season. Although this young team still is not likely to win a lot of games this season, they have a great shot when Kazmir is on the bump. Their shot gets even better when they are opposed by a Yankees pitcher who feels like he has the weight of the world on his shoulders today. Play the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on the money line as a regular selection.
The �proof is in the pudding� is another infamous saying but, although our first two plays fell short to start the season we�re confident of a couple facts. One is that you can pick up some facts from the information in the above write-up that will help you in the very near future. Another fact is that we will bounce back and we want you to know the hard work and analysis that goes into our daily baseball �grind� puts us into the money more often than not. We hope the analysis above helps you in one form or another. In parting, we leave you with another saying that always rings true in the long run: �there is no substitute for hard work�. Best of luck throughout the baseball season from Scott Rickenbach of Players Advantage, Inc.
Baseball Betting
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